While Trump lags badly in some national polls, he's far more competitive in key battlegrounds like Wisconsin 2019-11-07 1404 words in total New words of this article(21 words): --------------------------------------------- battleground n.战场 pivotal adj.枢轴的,关键的 stellar adj.恒星的 pollster n.民意测验专家,整理民意测验结果的人 disconnect v.拆开,分离,断开 dire adj.可怕的 methodology n.方法学,方法论 partisan n.游击队 populous adj.人口多的,人口稠密的 skew adj．不直的，歪斜的 unequivocal adj.不含糊的 setback n.顿挫,挫折,退步,逆流,(疾病的)复发 predictive adj.预言性的,成为前兆的 reelection n.再选, 改选 strategist n.战略家 popularity n.普及,流行,声望 incumbent adj.职责所在的,负有...义务的 scenario n.想定游戏的关,或是某一特定情节 obsession n.迷住,困扰 referendum n.公民投票,(外交使节)请示书 rhetoric adj.花言巧语的 --------------------------------------------- Milwaukee Journal Sentinel MILWAUKEE — With a year to go before the 2020 election, some national polls show Donald Trump facing daunting, double-digit deficits in his re-election bid. But the polling in Wisconsin and other swing states paints a far more competitive picture. Can both be right? The gap between Trump’s worst national polls and his best battleground战场 polls is so big it simply doesn’t add up. But it also reflects something very real about the political landscape: that nationwide surveys don’t always capture what’s happening in the handful of states most likely to determine the Electoral College winner. Wisconsin is a prime example. It is at the top of the list of pivotal枢轴的,关键的 battlegrounds战场 in the eyes of most analysts, suggesting that public opinion here shouldn’t deviate all that much from what it is nationally. Yet Trump has performed consistently better in Wisconsin than he has in nationwide polls. The president is averaging in the low 40s in job approval in national surveys. But in Wisconsin, he is at 46% approval in a Marquette Law School poll released two weeks ago, 47% in a New York Times/Siena poll released Monday, 44% in a Fox News poll released last month, and 42% in a poll just released by the Kaiser Family Foundation and Cook Political Report. Trump’s average job approval in those four surveys is 45%, far from stellar恒星的 but not crippling to his re-election prospects either. “I think the battleground战场 polls are more meaningful” than the national polls, said Diane Feldman, a longtime Democratic pollster民意测验专家,整理民意测验结果的人 who has conducted many surveys in Wisconsin. The seeming disconnect拆开,分离,断开 between national surveys and battleground战场 surveys was highlighted this week when the New York Times published polls showing Trump either tied, narrowly behind or narrowly ahead of his best-known Democratic rivals in the key states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina. Takeaway: In the states that matter most, the race is up for grabs. A day later, a nationwide Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Trump trailing Joe Biden by 17 points, Elizabeth Warren by 15 and Bernie Sanders by 14. Takeaway: Trump is in dire, dire可怕的 straits. “There is a profound disconnect拆开,分离,断开 between the state-level polling on the horse race and what we’re seeing in the national polling. I don’t know whether Joe Biden is up by 17 points nationally or if he’s only up a couple of points in Wisconsin, but both can’t be true,” said political scientist Ken Goldstein, who conducts his own polls in Wisconsin and elsewhere. Part of the explanation involves different pollsters民意测验专家,整理民意测验结果的人 using different methodologies方法学,方法论 and capturing different cross-sections of voters with different partisan游击队 leanings. Feldman said sometimes national polls oversample the populous人口多的,人口稠密的 coasts, which would skew不直的，歪斜的 a survey toward Democrats. Part of the explanation involves the normal variations in polling that always produce occasional outliers. But that still leaves the fact that, as the 2016 election showed, the Electoral College picture can deviate from the picture of the nation as a whole. Three years ago, Trump won the decisive battlegrounds战场 of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by under 1 point while losing the national vote by 2 points. If that pattern holds, Democrats might have to win the popular vote by 3 points or more in 2020 to carry the key state battlegrounds战场 they need to win the Electoral College. Polling since Trump took office reinforces that point. “In Wisconsin, our (Trump) approval number has been consistently about 3 points higher than his national average,” said Charles Franklin, who conducts the Marquette poll. Trump has averaged a little under 46% approval in Wisconsin over the past year in Marquette’s polling. As a result of this gap, anyone focused on the polling in battleground战场 Wisconsin is probably going to get a more competitive picture of the electoral fight than he or she would get from national surveys, where Trump is typically getting approval ratings of 41% to 44% — or, in the case of the Washington-Post-ABC poll, 39%. "The news this week was unequivocally不含糊的 bad for the White House if you were looking at national polls and unequivocally不含糊的 bad for the Democrats if you were looking at state polls," said Goldstein, a political science professor with the University of San Francisco and before that, the University of Wisconsin-Madison. (The White House also got bad news with the GOP's election setbacks顿挫,挫折,退步,逆流,(疾病的)复发 Tuesday, losing legislative control in Virginia and a contest for governor in Kentucky). “Battleground states are battlegrounds战场 precisely because they’re close. We should expect Wisconsin and probably Pennsylvania and North Carolina or Florida and Arizona to be pretty close states,” Franklin said. There have been variations in both the state and national polls. Nationally, an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Trump trailing Biden by 9 points, while Trump's deficit in the Washington Post survey is almost twice as large. In Wisconsin, a Fox News poll released in early October had Biden leading Trump in Wisconsin by 9 points. The recent Marquette poll had Biden leading by 6. The New York Times/Siena poll had Biden leading by 3. While the New York Times poll puts Trump’s approval here at 47% and Marquette puts it at 46%, the new Kaiser survey puts it at 42%. One thing that could explain these differences is that in the Marquette poll, the mix of Republican and Democratic voters was close to even; in the Kaiser survey, the sample was more Democratic-leaning in its makeup. But in the case of the state’s most frequent poll (by Marquette), Trump‘s ratings have been remarkably consistent. The president’s approval ratings in the last six Marquette polls dating back to October 2018 are: 46, 47, 44, 46, 45 and 46%. Those numbers have deviated even less than you would expect simply from random statistical variation. Franklin said his numbers are very consistent with the possibility that Trump’s true level of approval among all registered voters in Wisconsin hasn’t changed at all over the past year. What do Trump’s job ratings in Wisconsin suggest about his prospects of winning the state again? If you believe that a president’s approval rating is highly predictive预言性的,成为前兆的 of the incumbent’s share of the vote, that would suggest Trump is at a significant disadvantage in this state right now. “Every president running for reelection再选, 改选 over the last 60 years has received on Election Day a percentage of the popular vote within a point of their job approval number,” ABC news analyst Matthew Dowd, a strategist战略家 for President George W. Bush who now considers himself an independent, wrote this week. But some experts believe Trump can and will “overperform” his approval rating, as he over-performed his popularity普及,流行,声望 rating in 2016. Why? Because so many of his own supporters have such mixed feelings about him personally that it holds down his overall approval rating among people who are happy with key aspects of his performance — such as the economy — and will end up voting for him anyway. Others who dislike Trump may end up disliking the Democratic nominee even more, which happened in 2016. "He has a vote that goes beyond the voters that approve of him," Feldman said. Trump's flat approval ratings make it incumbent职责所在的,负有义务的 upon him to drive up the "negatives" of the Democratic nominee, said Ed Goeas, a GOP pollster. “It’s going to be driven by how high the negatives of his opponent are,” said Goeas, who doesn’t think Trump’s approval number is as good a guide to his re-election performance as it has been for past presidents. “His approval overall is kind of a worst-case scenario想定游戏的关,或是某一特定情节 for him,” he said. Franklin said the Wisconsin polling suggests “the president’s job approval has been consistently net negative, but not enormously so. He has been behind Biden in the (last two Marquette polls) but quite competitive with the other Democrats.” The Marquette pollster民意测验专家,整理民意测验结果的人 said, “it would be wrong to see the state as anything other than close,” with Trump still facing an “uphill” battle due to his negative ratings. “Everyone’s obsession迷住,困扰 with Wisconsin isn’t just hype. It’s truly competitive,” Goldstein said. “Trump is very much in a gray area, where he would be in trouble if this were a pure referendum公民投票,(外交使节)请示书 (on him) but has a chance because it’s going to be a choice.” Feldman, the Democratic pollster, said “We are maybe looking at a situation that is more similar to 2016 than (Democrats) would like it to be,” meaning a very narrowly decided contest. If that is true, then after all this time, Wisconsin would be right back where it was in the last election — on a knife’s edge. 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